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Category: Basketball Advanced Stats

01/14/19

About the Basketball Points Created and the Player Contribution
and Basketball Actuality News Video in our Thursday's Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts

Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts:
About the Basketball Points Created and the Player Contribution

Basketball Statistics Analysis Referred Concepts
How much value is placed on an assist ?
Like the problems with rebounds and blocked shots, standard formulas try to arbitrarily assign a value to assists that would give credit to the 'assistant' and simultaneously take the same account of credit away from the 'assisted'.

Assists, though, unlike rebounds or blocked shots, have a definite scoring possession associated with them: there is no assists without points scored.
We have a turnover when your team has the ball, and you lose it to the other team. A turnover can come in the form of a stolen pass, a pass that you throw out of bounds, it can be where they steal the ball away from your dribbler, it can be where you have a player stand in the paint for over three seconds, etc., etc, etc.

When the turnover does occurs or when a bad shot is forced during an ON BALL screen situation, that's means there is a direct influence of an opponent action: the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System refers to it as a FORCED TURNOVER.

An individual floor percentage could be a way for not only evaluate the offensive efficiency of players, but also to calculate the points created by each player.

... a basketball assist for 2 easy points ...
Photograph: Day Life

"Individual Floor Percentage"=
scoring possessions by a player divided by his total possessions.

"Player's Scoring Possessions"=
field goals that weren't assisted on
+ a not specified percentage of his field goals that were assisted on
+ a not specified percentage of his assists
+ free throw made that represent a team scoring possession.

"Player's Total Possessions"=
all his scoring possessions
+ his missed field goals
+ free throws that weren't rebounded by his team
+ turnovers.

The question to go on with this topic resides in the value of that "not specified percentage" in each field.

Excerpt of my Exposition about "The Basketball Possessions Analysis"
in the still concluded Basketball Statistics eBA Clinics.


Read More at eBA ENCYCLOPEDIA ONLINE, search "field goal percentage" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System and at the eBA Encyclopedia.

'Basketball Registering Stats Referred Concepts'
is a Series of Notes edited rEGULARLY Every Month !

To Read ALL the Articles in this Series, click here: Categories > Analysis Concepts


Actuality News
EuroLeague 2018/19 ~ Top 10 Plays of Mid-Season !



EuroLeague 2018/19 ~ Top 10 Plays of Mid-Season !


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01/08/19

About the Steals Concept and Statistical Tracking
and Basketball Actuality News Video in our Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts

Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts:
About the Steals Concept and Statistical Tracking

Basketball Statistics Analysis Referred Concepts
In basketball, a steal occurs when a defensive player legally gains control of the ball from an offensive player. This can be done by deflecting and controlling, catching, or batting (to a teammate) a pass or dribble of an offensive player.

A steal may happen while the offensive player is dribbling, holding the ball, or by intercepting a pass. The defender must not touch the offensive player's hands or otherwise a foul is called.
Stealing the ball requires concentration, good anticipation, speed and fast reflexes and good hustle, all common traits of a good defender. However, like blocked shots, steals aren't always a perfect gauge of a player's defensive abilities.

An unsuccessful steal can result in the defender being out of position and unable to recover in time. Therefore, a steal is a gamble. And a steal usually leads to a fast break, the most exciting play in the sport.

If an offensive player loses possession of the basketball due to a steal, he is recorded as making a turnover and the defender is recorded with a steal, forced or unforced depending upon the play development.

About the Basketball Steals Concept and Statistical Tracking
Photograph: Zimbio.com

The eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System records, in addition to the traditional stats, the points made from the forced and unforced steals done during the game. This number is not always similar, as people usually thinks, to the opponent's points off turnovers.

There is no necessarily prototypical position from which a player may get many steals from. While smaller, quicker guards tend to accumulate the most steals, there are many exceptions. For example, forward Rick Barry led the NBA in steals in 1974-75, and for many years center Hakeem Olajuwon lead his team in the category, consistently ranking among the league's leaders.

Therefore, the eBA System records the area and the whole situation where the steal occurred.

Steals were first recorded in the NBA's 1973-74 season. Kendall Gill ( on December 26, 1976 ) and Larry Kenon ( on April 3, 1999 ) are tied for most steals in a regular season NBA game with eleven.
The most steals in an NBA season is 301 by Alvin Robertson in 1985-86.

Excerpt of my Exposition about "The Basketball Steals Analysis"
in the still concluded Basketball Statistics eBA Clinics.


Read More at eBA ENCYCLOPEDIA ONLINE, search "basketball steals" in this blog and consult the Chapter eBA Basketball Steals Statistics Analysis.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System and at the eBA Encyclopedia.

'Basketball Registering Stats Referred Concepts'
is a Series of Notes edited Regularly Every Month !

To Read ALL the Articles in this Series, click here: Categories > Analysis Concepts


Tom Izzo and Coachtube


Actuality News
EuroLeague, Top 10 Dunks of Mid-Season!



EuroLeague, Top 10 Dunks of Mid-Season



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12/18/18

A Loose Ball and Pushed by Own Teammate and the Efficiency in Different Possession Start
in our Basketball Stats Tracking Referred Questions & Basketball Statistics Video Case Study

Basketball Statistics Tracking Referred Questions:
A Loose Ball and Pushed by Own Teammate and the Efficiency in Different Possession Start

Basketball Tracking Stats Referred Questions
"... Loose ball and Team B player gets the ball and turns very quickly to shoot at the basket, but when he goes up for the shot he is pushed by another Team B player in the loose ball struggle yet.

The official blew the whistle and then realized that it was his own teammate that had contact with him.

Which is the rule of this situation and, specially the statistician rule according to the eBA Basketball Statistics System ? ..."



From the eBA System: About the Efficiency in Different Possession Start Cases

Here I post some comments on the results included in this post: Efficiency in Different Possession Start Cases.

The complete analysis is included in my exposition about "Possessions" in the eBA ONLINE Clinics:

~ The manner your opponent scores (2p, 3p or FT) does not have a major effect upon your efficiency;

~ Most teams performs better when the possession starts with a defensive rebound after an opponent missed 2p FG;

~ It's easier to put back the ball when an offensive rebound follows a 2 point shot than after a 3-pointer;

~ Good defense makes better team's offense by approximately 5% and good offense improves defense in the same way;

~ A steal is a great offensive tool, more than an offensive rebound;

~ The high efficiency in regards to steals is reasonable because a steal leads to a fast break which is one the most efficient offensive opportunities as well as an offensive rebound;

~ The biggest difference between NBA and European results is efficiency after non-steal turnovers probably because in the NBA an steal is always credited if the ball stays live, which is not always the case in European stats: the eBA Basketball Statistics System register the steals according to the NBA conception;

~ It is harder to take an offensive rebound after a 3p missed than after a 2p missed;

~ One factor that makes bigger the average efficiency after Free Throws is that, because of the team foul penalty, there are more Free Throws near the end of a quarter;

~ The penalty situation also helps to increase efficiency: the net result is a higher average for Free Throws cases than it should be.


Los Angeles Lakers center Andrew Bynum dives to for a loose ball as Denver Nuggets guard Andre Miller, right, looks on during the first half in Los Angeles. Photograph AP by Mark J. Terrill
Photograph Yahoo News

eBA Basketball Statistical Tracking=
In an inadvertent whistle situation like this, the official must determine where the ball was at the time of the whistle:

1) the ball is still in the shooter's hands: ball becomes dead immediately, no goal can be scored, and team B gets the ball back. No statistical register, out of the play-by-play story.

2) the ball was in the air: the goal counts if it goes, and the games goes with a jump ball or the Alternating Possession arrow, its depends by the league.

3) if the ball had been secured on a rebound already: that team receives the ball for a throw-in.


See in our forums the 'loose balls tracking' topics and the exposition "Basketball Possessions Tracking & Analysis" at eBA SYSTEM.

All the terms in this post are widely explained at The eBA Basketball Encyclopedia.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics System Book





Video Case Study:
Basketball Turnovers Tracking: The Same Mistake Twice !



The Same Mistake Twice !

"... Javale McGee makes the same mistake...twice... is there any special qualification of these two plays, when doing basketball statistical analysis, and not only tracking statistics ? ..."

Examine this Case Sudy in this Message from the eBA sketball Statistics Forums


'Basketball Registering Stats Referred Questions'
is a Series of Notes edited Regularly Every Month !

To Read ALL the Articles and see ALL the Videos in this Series, click here: Categories > Selected Questions




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11/07/18

About Basketball Steals and Defensive Efficiency and the Defense By The Numbers
and the Video Clipping in our Weekly Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts

Basketball Statistics Analysis Referred Concepts:
Basketball Steals and Defensive Efficiency

Basketball Statistics Analysis Referred Concepts
In the still concluded eBA Annual Basketball Statistics Clinic there was a debate about basketball steals: is a good number of steals a good indicator for the efficiency of the defense ?

Some thoughts to begin the discussion:

 • ...players or teams with the best steals averages are not as a highly likely consequence the best defensive players or steals...

 • ...if players go for too many steals, the probabilities are their defensive efficiency including everything is set at a disadvantage from that...

 • ...steals percentage (steals per possession) is a good statistic to consider...

 • ...declaring as an attribute or quality a defense on steals isn't going to be as being marked by a favorable outcome as one based on forcing misses...

 • ...if your aggressive style defense is more impressive than your team playing a more conforming to a standard defense, you'll have to examine and note the similarities or differences of your numbers with something...

The discussion and my analysis will continue on the thread "Steal Statistics: Cases & Registration" at the Processing Statistics Board.


basketball steats analysis
Photograph: Marin Independent Journal

Basketball Steals & Defense By The Numbers:

Data collected since 1988 by eBA Stats.com Team reflects the good and bad of the team’s defense.

We tracked possession-by-possession who was responsible for defending shots, forcing turnovers, committing fouls that resulted in free throws, or stealing the ball including effective ball denial defense.

The data suggests broad defensive principles where guards and perimeter defenders can pressure the ball and make opponents uncomfortable on the perimeter, but always with focus on the team’s force rules that funnel penetration to certain locations.

At those defined locations, the perimeter defender knows he’ll have help from a teammate — usually a big man.

This eBA Stats approach is very valid, and more detailed than what we see at another statistical systems. This kind of information is extremely useful and is being studied during the current eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System Clinic.

The goal is to steal the ball and create turnovers by always having a defender close to the offensive player, limit the number of open looks at the basket, while simultaneously having big men challenge a greater proportion of the offense’s shot attempts.

This serves to both steal the ball and create turnovers and increase the statistical likelihood of misses.

By Professor

Excerpts of a discussion at the still finished eBA Annual Basketball Statistics Clinic


Get Better at Softball



Read More at eBA ENCYCLOPEDIA ONLINE, search "basketball steals" and "defensive efficiency" in this blog and consult the Chapter "Basketball Steals Analysis" at the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System and at the eBA Encyclopedia.

'Basketball Statistics Tracking Referred Concepts'
is a Series of Notes edited Regularly Every Month !

To Read ALL the Articles in this Series, click here: Categories > Analysis Concepts


Friday Video Clippings:
' Arden Hayes VS Justin Bieber '



' Arden Hayes VS Justin Bieber '

Do you like Justin Bieber? Maybe he's a good singer and dancer but, do you think he's a good student? Then look and listen to the little Arden Hayes. AMAZING!!!.

'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the Regularly Every Month

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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eBA Stats en Google Plus

10/21/18

Basketball Block Shot Analysis & Statistics Tracking:
With or Without Ball Control is the Question!

Basketball Block Shot Analysis & Statistics Tracking:
With or Without Ball Control is the Question!

The answer was:
A1 goes up for a shot under the basket and the defensive player B2 knocks the ball in the hands of the shooter while they are both in the air, and there is no case of foul. A1 then let the ball fall to the ground before landing back on the court, gathers the ball up and makes a basket.

What is the call for the game and the statistical tracking in case of turnover?

Celtics small forward Paul Pierce has his shot blocked by Charlotte Bobcats power forward Tyrus Thomas during their NBA basketball game in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo: REUTERS/Chris Keane

By definition (see our eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis Encyclopedia ) a blocked shot occurs when a defensive player successfully and legally deflects a shot from an offensive player by touching and rejecting the ball on its way to the basket, and before it has reached its highest point, in order to prevent from a field goal.

In order to be a legal action, the  block must occur while the shot is travelling upward. It it is heading downward when the defender hits it, it is ruled a goaltending and counts as a made basket.

We have an altered shot when a blocker changes the shooter shot causing the shooter to miss the basket.

Opponents' field goal percentage vary widely depending on which interior defender is close to the basket. Milwaukee's Larry Sanders is one of the most effective interior defenders in the league: opponents struggle to score when he is near the basket. This not the case with Boston Celtics' David Lee: when he is close to the basket, opponents score at very high efficiencies. (Click on the picture to read the full article by Adam E. Gallagher from  Tropics of Meta). In this Image: by Adam E. Gallagher from  Tropics of Meta presented by eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis Group.
Interior Basketball Defense Analitics for the NBA
Image: by Adam E. Gallagher from Tropics of Meta

Opponents' field goal percentage vary widely depending on which interior defender is close to the basket. Milwaukee's Larry Sanders is one of the most effective interior defenders in the league: opponents struggle to score when he is near the basket. This not the case with Boston Celtics' David Lee: when he is close to the basket, opponents score at very high efficiencies. (Click on the picture to read the full article by Adam E. Gallagher from  Tropics of Meta)


If the ball is knocked out of the offensive players hands while they are in mid air, then they regain control once they have landed, this is legal.

If the ball is forced out during the time that the player is in the air, the player regains control (while in the air) and lands, it is a travel.
eBA Basketball Statistical Tracking=
Forced Turnover

If the offensive player returns to the floor, holding the ball, and the ball has never left his hands, one of two things are possible:

1) if the defensive player has only one hand on the ball, it is a travel against the offensive player.
eBA Basketball Statistical Tracking=
Forced Turnover.

Coachtube and Tom Izzo

2) if the defensive player has both hands on the ball it is a jump ball which will be resolved according with the alternate possession rule

Are you still a member of our eBA sketball Community in Google + ?
Be Welcome !




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09/13/18

Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts:
Points per Field Goal Attempt Formula: Concept & Application

Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts:
Points per Field Goal Attempt Formula: Concept & Application

Basketball Statistics Analysis Referred Concepts
In order to measure how strictly correctly a player or team is shooting we need statistics, and if possible a creative analysis of those basketball statistics.

Statisticians most often use the field goal percentage ( FG% ) to do it, but the added bonus of the three-point shot, for instance, isn't reflected in field goal percentage, and the ability to get to the free-throw line (where the points come much easier) is ignored as well.

"Points per Shot Attempt" (PSA): It's a stat designed to reflect the basics of good shooting: getting the greatest number of points from the fewest number of attempts.

this chart provides a useful baseline that we can use to evaluate individual shooting performances. By overlaying players’ shot constellations, we can estimate the expected total number of points that an average NBA shooter would produce, based on where he took his shots; then we can compare a particular player’s actual yield against it. In this Image by Kirk Goldsberry from GrantLand.com presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Image: by Kirk Goldsberry from GrantLand.com

This chart provides a useful baseline that we can use to evaluate individual shooting performances. By overlaying players’ shot constellations, we can estimate the expected total number of points that an average NBA shooter would produce, based on where he took his shots; then we can compare a particular player’s actual yield against it. (Click on the image to continue reading the article!)

Points per shot attempt is simply points divided by shot attempts . Figuring shot attempts is like this: Add field goal attempts plus "Up to the Line" (for 2 or 3 free-throws).

In case of analysis of another team and if you can't know how many times the player or the team reached the line, use (0.4 * FTA) instead.

PSA = Points / (Up to the Line + FGA)

Last years NBA league PSA average was something around 1.039 points per shot attempt, so by averaging, by example, 1.133 points per attempt, an average team gains a full point with every ten shots.

Points per Field Goal Attempt Formula
Photograph: 20 Minutos.es

PSA is just as handy for rating individual players as it is for teams. Occasionally a player will break into the top ten who shoots nothing but dunks, but mostly it's the long shooters who are at the top of an individual PSA list.

This formula, with another fields formulas, are integrated in the 2nd. exposition of the Basketball Statistics Registration eBA Course: "Statistics Formulas Revision", at eBA ANNUAL CLINICS ONLINE.
Prof. Roberto Azar

Read More at eBA SYSTEM ONLINE, search "points per field goal attempt" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System
and at the eBA Encyclopedia.


'Basketball Tracking Stats Referred Concepts'
is a Series of Notes edited regularlyh !

To Read ALL the Articles in this Series, click here: Categories > Analysis Concepts

Pat Summitt and Coachtube



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09/08/18

About the Basketball 'Assist-Turnover Ratio'
& the Basketball Training Video in our Weekly Reflexions on Basketball Statistics

Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Basketball 'Assist-Turnover Ratio'

Basketball Statistician's Sunday's Reflexions
Reading the 'assist-turnover ratio' from the box-scores, where a player's Ast/TO ratio start to help his team's offensive effectiveness ?

It is clear this level must would be higher for a point guard, but which are the statistical levels ?

Both statistics categories assists and turnovers matter when we note at the European Basketball eBA Archives that 7 of the top 10 AS/TO players are on playoffs teams and of course it does have a positive effect.

 • turnovers are a four factor category according to Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" book;

 • assists suggest good passing and have positive impact on at least 2 of the other three (FG% and FT/FG);

Under the defensive pression of Bryant Mbamalu, freshman guard Denzel Valentine turns the ball over during the game against Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns on Nov. 25, 2012, at Breslin Center. The Spartans beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 60-63. Photograph by Natalie Kolb / The State News

 • TO do not help the offense, but Pts / Reb / Ast do;

 • assists have positive impact on offensive rebounding if the good passes creates a need for help defense;

 • the Basketball Statistics Analysis System separates out 'TO resulting from passes' in our calculations;

 • assists also allow some of the players to focus more on rebounding than looking for their shot;

 • from the eBA Archives top 5 teams on raw assists played the playoffs but 3 of the bottom 5 played too;

 • assists are not one of the four factors categories according to Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" book;

 • as you can see below, the results are different if the PG is also a shooter and/or rebounder - all this things create turnover opportunities-, than if he just brings the ball up and passes;

 • you can play with the following numbers taking into account that this is only a new eBA Research and the break-even points may very well be different for each position:

Forget passing, which player is the best decision maker?3 In this image, Leonard’s shot probability is tied for the most likely outcome, even though by expected possession value it is his worst option; passing to anyone would be better. And these numbers can be tailored to individual players! With substantial sample sizes for individual players over the course of thousands of possessions, we do not have to settle for 'Shooters make X percent of open corner threes', we can specify that 'Player Y makes Z percent of open corner threes'. Which point guard best understands his teammates’ strengths and weaknesses, the differences between the starters and the subs, etc? Which big man has the most added value when getting the ball at the post?  <br />
In this Image by Colin William Weaver from Crossroads presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Image: Colin William Weaver from Crossroads

Forget passing, which player is the best decision maker? In this image, Leonard’s shot probability is tied for the most likely outcome, even though by expected possession value it is his worst option; passing to anyone would be better. And these numbers can be tailored to individual players! With substantial sample sizes for individual players over the course of thousands of possessions, we do not have to settle for 'Shooters make X percent of open corner threes', we can specify that 'Player Y makes Z percent of open corner threes'. Which point guard best understands his teammates’ strengths and weaknesses, the differences between the starters and the subs, etc? Which big man has the most added value when getting the ball at the post? ( continue reading the article in http://bit.ly/1K9jK90 )

Top 20 overall AS/TO Ratio are for point guards 2.45, shooting guards 1.75, small forward 1.55, power forward 1.15 and center something about 0.85.

A selected excerpt from the discussions at the eBA Annual Analysis System Clinic Chat about this topic "Basketball Assists & Turnovers" by Prof. Roberto Azar.



Pat Summitt and Coachtube



Read More at eBA CLINICS ONLINE, search "Basketball Assist-Turnover Ratio" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System at the eBA System > The Articles

Basketball Training Videos:
Pau Gasol - Running Hook - Signature Moves

The Copyrights from this Video Owns to NIKE.com


Basketball: Pau Gasol - Running Hook - Signature Moves

Work your defender to get him out of position and finish ice-cold with the unblockable running hook shot.

1. Post up Establish contact with the defender in your back. Before you receive the pass make sure that you are in a low and powerful position to keep your balance.

2. Fake baseline Spin to the right to fake out your defender. When he shifts, youve got yourself some space to move.

3. Attack middle Now that you have your defender out of the way, turn round and attack the basket from the centre.

4. Running hook As you approach the basket, use your left arm and shoulder to protect the ball from any block attempts. Then as you take the shot; use your fingertips for extra control and shoot smoothly over your defender into the basket.

This video is from the NIKE SIGNATURE MOVES SERIES



To watch all our eBA sketball Training Videos go to our YouTube BA Channel !

'Reflexions on Basketball Statistics'
is a Series of Notes edited regularly !

To read ALL the basketball Statistics Reflexions, click here:Statisticians & Roles





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04/13/18

Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek ~ in our From the Archives Press & Video Clippings

From the Archives Press Clippings:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek
Download source here:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

"... Predicting the outcome of a future game between two sports teams poses a challenging problem of interest to statistical scientists as well as the general public. To be effective such prediction must exploit special contextual features of the game. In this paper, we confront such features and address the need to:

(i) use all relevant sample information;
(ii) reflect the home game advantage.

To do so we use the weighted likelihood. Finally we demonstrate the value of the method by showing how it could have been used to predict the 96/97 NBA playoff results. Our weighted likelihood-based method proves to be quite accurate. ..."

"... This paper demonstrates the use of the weighted likelihood (WL) to predict the winner of National Basketball Association (NBA) final games and applies the method in each of the games played in the 1996-97 finals between the two top ranked teams, the Chicago Bulls and the Utah Jazz. However, as we try to indicate, the WL has much wider applicability inside as well outside the domain of sports.way dunker created by a teammate’s steal, offensive rebound, and or perfect outlet pass? ..."

"... The genesis of our work lies in two statistical problems encountered in sports:
(i) the prediction of the outcome of a future game between two specified sports teams;
(ii) the assessment of the accuracy of this prediction.

Since typically these two teams will not have met more than just a few times in the given season, little direct information will be available to the forecaster. The consequent small sample size will make naive predictions inaccurate and the associated prediction intervals excessively large. ..."

1996-97 Chicago Bulls Championship: #1 ~ Randy Brown: #30 ~ Jud Buechler; #35 ~ Jason Caffey; #18 ~ Bison Dele; #9 ~ Ron Harper; #23 ~ Michael Jordan; #25 ~ Steve Kerr; #7 ~ Toni Kukoc; #13 ~ Luc Longley; #00 ~ Robert Parish; #33 ~ Scottie Pippen; #91 ~ Dennis Rodman; #8 ~ Dickey Simpkins; #6 ~ Matt Steigenga, #34 	Bill Wennington In this photograph from Operation Sports presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Photograph: Operation Sports

"... Usually in sports, the outcome of any one game derives from the combined efforts of two teams that have seldom played each other before. Yet these games yield the only direct sample information available about the relative strength of these two teams.

At the same time, each of these teams will have played many games against other teams thereby generating relevant (although not direct) sample information. The predictive probability of a win in the next game between these two teams, should combine both kinds of information ..."

"... Based on the probabilities and the confidence intervals of Table 1, we can find the probabilities with which the Bulls (and Jazz) will win the Final by Game 4, 5, 6 or 7.

Also we can calculate the total win probabilities for the Bulls against the Jazz based on its home and away win probabilities given by each of the three estimation methods.
Confidence intervals for these win probabilities may be obtained as well.

In Table 2 where the results are reported, and in the tables that follow, that interval is obtained for any pair of teams say A and B from the 95% asymptotic intervals for A’s home- and A’s away-win-against-B probabilities.. ..."

"... The method in this paper provides guidelines for the development of a prediction strategy. Its implementation, more specifically the construction of weights entails the incorporation of any special features that may obtain when the game is played.

For example, one might need to incorporate the knowledge that certain key players cannot play in that game."

To be more precise, we fitted a logistic model using the software R with the response variable being 1 or 0 according as the outcome of any game during the season was a visitor or home victory. We used dummy variables to represent visitor and home teams in each game throughout the season.

Thus for example, BullsV=1 and Super-sonics=1, all other dummies being 0, would mean those two teams were playing for that particular game, the visitors being the Bulls. For each of the factors, ‘visitor’ and ‘home’ we represented by the dummies in this way, we arbitrarily chose the 76er’s as the baseline team.

Thus, in effect, the fitted intercept, suitably transformed, provides an estimate of the likelihood of a ‘1’ in the purely hypothetical situation where the 76er’s played themselves at home as the visitors.

The coefficients for the remaining dummies represent the deviations from the 76er’s performance for each of the other teams depending on whether they were playing at home or awa ..." Read more ...

Read more articles in Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

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To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
“Análisis Espacial de Lanzamientos en Baloncesto; el Caso de L.A. Lakers
by López, F.A., Martínez, J.A. y Ruiz, M.
.



From the Archives Video Clippings:
Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma



Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma

Muti said : yes, viva Italia... But, as we are in house, quite at home, let us speak together.
"Va pensiero", in old days, was a political symbol. I'm not a politician but I can say that if our culture goes on being slain, our Italia will be "si bella e perduta". So, as the choir has beautifully sung it, we should join them to sing another time "Va, pensiero !"


'From the Archives Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly!

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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03/14/18

Basketball Statistics Questions: Illegal Lane Invasion on a Last Free Throw & Video C. Study

Basketball Tracking Stats Referred Questions:
Illegal Lane Invasion on a Last Free Throw Case Statistical Tracking

Basketball Registering Stats Referred Questions
...B1 invades the lane against the rules before the final free throw from A1 strikes the rim. A2 at that time invades the lane early, accompanied by A3, both players in marked lane spaces....

What is the Rule of the Game and the Statistics Tracking Rule according to the eBA Basketball Statistics System Book ? ...






Commentary=
Violations of A1 and A3 are dismissed. Therefore a new free throw is awarded to A1 due to B1's lane violation.

Illegal Lane Invasion on Jordan's Last Free Throw
Illegal Lane Invasion on Jordan's Last Free Throw in a Photograph from Worldisround.com

eBA Basketball Statistics Registration=
Nothing is registered out of the legal free throws according to the play.

All the terms in this answer are explained widely at The eBA Basketball System Book and in eBA Encyclopedia ONLINE.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis Encyclopedia
at the eBA Basketball Statistics System Book




Video Case Study:
Basketball TF for Simulating a Foul

"... We have here a Basketball TF for Simulating a Foul... Is it a real situation ? May be we have a referee mistake ?

How the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System analyze Juan Carlos Navarro´s action ? ..."

Examine this Case Sudy in this Message from the Basketball Statistics Forums


'Basketball Registering Stats Referred Questions'
is a Series of Notes edited regularly !

To Read ALL the Articles and see ALL the Videos in this Series, click here: Categories > Selected Questions




Your comments are Welcomed ! ... by means of eBA InterMail English or just here !

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02/07/18

About the Minutes Played, the Foul Trouble & Fouling Out & Basketball Training Video
in our Weekly Reflexions on Basketball Statistics

Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Minutes Played, the Foul Trouble & Fouling Out

Basketball Statistician's Sunday's Reflexions
How to make a statistical calculation of the player's missed playing time ascribable to fouls ?
Is there in the the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System some data about the player utilization and substitution set of rules in the foul trouble case ? That means to say, when they are sent to the bench and after which foul number ?

To calculate missed playing time ascribable to fouls, we must base our analysis in the following assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:

In FIBA & NBA:
No change when a player commits his first foul.
Committing his second a player foul would be replaced and have to wait at the bench until the half of the second quarter.
A player committing his third foul would be replaced and would be a bench player until the third quarter.
With the critical (in FIBA) fourth foul committed a player would be replaced and have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
In NBA:
A player committing his fifth foul would have to be out of the game until the half of the fourth quarter.

Sarunas Jasikevicius (R) and Robertas Javtokas of Lithuania sit on the substitution bench during their friendly basketball game against Turkey as part of their training for the Beijing Olympics, at the Venetian Macao-Resort-Hotel in Macau August 2, 2008
Photograph: Day Life

Now, how often do players foul out of a game ? When the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul happens ? Which percentage of the players with the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul are fouled out ?

- 49% of the 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA come with about 3 minutes left in the game: remember to consider, 40 minutes in FIBA and 48 in the NBA !
- 82% of all players who perpetrate a 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA do not foul out.

This is reasonable from the moment the studies from eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System demonstrates that even the most players having a tendency to foul lose only a few minutes per game because of their foul trouble. But they play the great majority of their minutes near the danger of fouling out.

The analysis of the different types of Foul Trouble, were studied in the eBA Basketball Statistics Tracking Clinic.

( Excerpts from my Exposition at the eBA Clinics: "Basketball Free Throws Statistical Tracking" )

Read More at eBA ENCYCLOPEDIA ONLINE, search "basketball free throws" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System at the eBA System > The Articles


Basketball Training Videos:
Defense: Tayshaun Prince's Wing Denial

The Copyrights from this Video Owns to NIKE.com


Defense: Tayshaun Prince's Wing Denial
Nike Basketball Pro Training presents Tayshaun Prince showing one of his signature moves..

This video is from the NIKE SIGNATURE MOVES SERIES from eBA Basketball Video Channel A

'Reflexions on Basketball Statistics'
is a Series of Notes edited the First Monday of Every Month !

To read ALL the basketball Statistics Reflexions, click here:Statisticians & Roles



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