Author Topic: • Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability • Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento en Baloncesto  (Read 366602 times)

BGA John Volger

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Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability
Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento n Baloncesto


• La Ventaja del Campo Local y el Sistema de Clasificación Computada
• The Home Court Advantage and the Computer Ranking System - CRS



Muchos de los vídeos de nuestros Casos de Estudio fueron "enterrados" por el Canal de Pornografía #Dailymotion, que cerró nuestro canal cediendo vergonzosamente a las presiones de nuestra competencia ... teníamos demasiado éxito y el baloncesto no tiene porno :) !
Es por ello que han desaparecido los vídeos de muchas publicaciones de Casos de Estudio! Estamos trabajando muy duro para recuperarlos!
Nuestras disculpas por los inconvenientes!
Alejen a sus hijos de #DailymontionArrogance !



( for English Translation= See Below )

Raymond Cheong designó un sistema de clasificación computada ("Computer Ranking System - CRS ) - verlo en www bme.jhu.edu/ - para predecir el resultado de un hipotético enfrentamiento - "matchup" - entre dos equipos de baloncesto. El CRS confía en la observación por la que el  margen de ventaja en el score es altamente relacionado con la posibilidad de ganar, pero el promedio del margen de ventaja puede ser ajustado por fuerza del programa de partidos y situaciones variables en la habilidad de cada día.

El CRS da la diferencia esperada en el resultado en un hipotético apareamiento - "matchup", y asumiendo una variante Gaussiana en la capacidad diaria, da una fórmula cerrada para la probabilidad de que un equipo venza al otro.

Este sistema pudo ser fácilmente adaptado para otros deportes, pero es particularmente apropiado para la NCAA Division I masculina de baloncesto debido al gran número de partidos jugados y a la extensa graduación de resultados.

El registro de 2/3 de partidos ganados como local es a menudo citado como una evidencia de que la ventaja del campo local existe. Sin embargo, la ventaja del campo local controlada por diferencias en las habilidades del equipo de local y de visitante es cero.

Esto está parcialmente relacionado por la tendencia de que fuertes equipos invitan a otros más débiles para su preparación para los juegos de la Liga.

Por otro lado, la ventaja del campo local calculada en pares de partidos local y visitante es de 3-4 puntos, sugiriendo que la ventaja del campo local es real. Raymond Cheong no tiene actualmente una explicación satisfactoria para las discrepancias entre estos análisis.


The Duke Blue Devils Men's Basketball Team Home Court Advantage
The Duke Blue Devils Men's Basketball Team Home Court Advantage


En resumen, esta evidencia no confirma ni niega que la ventaja del campo local existe, pero desde la base encontramos que si la ventaja del campo local es incluida en el sistema de clasificación computada la forma en que éste es calculado debe ser evaluado cuidadosamente - ver Johns Hopkins Biomedical Engineering -.

:)  John Volger -  eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Visite: La Colección de Vídeos del eBA loncesto (2nd. y 4to. Foros)


How Important is Home Court Advantage In The NBA?


Many of the videos of our Case Studies were "buried" by the #Dailymotion Pornography Channel, which closed our channel shamefully yielding to the pressures of our competence ... we were too successful and the basketball has no porn :) !
That is why the videos of many publications with Case Studies have disappeared! We are working very hard to recover them!
Our apologies for the inconvenience!
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Raymond Cheong designed a computer ranking system (CRS) - see it at
www bme.jhu.edu/ - to predict the outcome of a hypothetical matchup between two basketball teams. The CRS relies on the observation that average score margin is highly correlated to the ability to win, but that average score margin can be adjusted for strength of schedule and random variations in day-to-day ability.

The CRS gives the expected score difference in a hypothetical matchup, and assuming Gaussian variation in day-to-day ability, gives a closed formula for the probability one team will defeat another.

This system could be easily adjusted for other sports, but is particularly suited for NCAA Division I men’s basketball because of the large number of games played and the finely graded scores.

The two-thirds winning record of home teams is often cited as evidence that a home court advantage exists.

However, the HCA controlled for differences in home and away team abilities is zero. This is partially accounted for by the trend that strong teams invite weak teams in the first half of the season to warm up for conference play.

On the other hand, the Home Court Advantage calculated from paired home-away games is 3-4 points, suggesting the HCA is real. Raymond Cheong currently do not have a satisfying explanation for the discrepancies between these analyses.


EuroLeague Home-Court Advantage: Panathinaikos & Olympiacos Lead The Way
EuroLeague Home-Court Advantage: Panathinaikos & Olympiacos Lead The Way


On balance, this evidence neither confirms nor denies that the HCA exists, but at minimum that if an HCA is included in a CRS the way it is calculated must be carefully evaluated - see Johns Hopkins Biomedical Engineering -.

:D Translation & Links: ebastats - the basketball statistics forum

Visit: The eBa sketball Video Collection (2nd. & 4th. Boards)

BGA John Volger

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Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability
Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento en Baloncesto


• Winning Percentage & Pts. Scored & Allowed
• Porcentajes de Victorias y Pts. Convertidos y Concedidos


( para Traducción al Español= Ver a Continuación )

Pythagorean records, as studied in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System,  are based on the knowledge that team winning percentages are generally closely related to points scored and allowed, not being a repeatable skill where they differ (read here this thread about the 'Winning Percentages').

How the Pythagorean winning percentage is formulated is included in the module "Formulas Revision" in the eBA Systems.

;) John Volger - eBA Stats Team - El Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Visit: The eBA Basketball & Statistics Encyclopedia


How Does Basketball Scoring Work?
What is the difference between point totals in basketball shots? Continue reading & watching at 'TheOnDeckCircle Channel'!


Los registros Pitagoreanos, tal como son estudiadas en el Sistema eBA de Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto, están basadas en el conocimiento de que los porcentajes de victorias de un equipo están relacionados estrechamente con los puntos convertidos y concedidos no siendo una habilidad factible de repetir donde ellos difieren (leer aquí este hilo sobre el Porcentajes de Victorias).

La fórmula de cómo el porcentaje de victorias Pitagoreano está formulado se encuentra en el módulo "Revisión de Fórmulas" en el Sistema eBA EN-LINEA
 

:D  Translation & Links: ebastats - the basketball statistics forum

Visite: La Enciclopedia eBA del Baloncesto y las Estadísticas

Coach Over

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Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability
Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento en Baloncesto


• Registros Pitagoreanos del Porcentaje de Victorias
• Winning Percentages Pythagorean Records


( for English Translation= See Below )

Sobre qué están basados los registros pitagoreanos del porcentaje de victorias ?


Odds of a perfect NCAA Basketball Bracket by DePaul Expert, Professor Jeff Bergen
The odds of picking a perfect bracket for the NCAA men’s basketball championship tournament are a staggering less than one in 9.2 quintillion according Jeff Bergen, mathematics professor at DePaul University.
Basketball experts weigh in with insight into March Madness and analysis even before teams are chosen and ranked for the tournament on Selection Sunday. Continue reading & watching at 'DePaul Newsroom Channel'!


What is the basis of the  winning percentages Pythagorean records ?

:D Translation & Links: ebastats - the basketball statistics forum

Visit: The eBA Stats Group Portal

HBC Louis C. Sierra

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Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability
Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento en Baloncesto


• Porcentaje de veces que el equipo gana
• The percentage of times the team wins


( for English Translation= See Below )

Cuando disponemos de los registros generales sin ninguna información sobre ventaja de campo local, etc. nosotros aplicamos la siguiente fórmula:

Gan%A_B = [ Gan%A * ( 1-Gan%B ) ] / [ Gan%A * ( 1-Gan%B ) + ( 1-Gan%A ) * Gan%B ]

donde Gan%A_B es la chance que hay de que A vencerá a B, Gan%A es el porcentaje de victorias de A contra la liga, y Gan%B es el porcentaje de victorias de B contra la liga.

Cuando podemos acceder a los porcentajes de campo local, aplicamos:

Gan%A_B = [ Gan%A * ( 1-Gan%B ) * Gan%L ]/ [ Gan%A * ( 1-Gan%B ) * Gan%L + ( 1-Gan%A ) * Gan%B  * ( 1-Gan%L ) ]

donde Gan%L es el porcentaje de veces que el equipo Local gana.

:)  Louis C. Sierra -  eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

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Does the first team to score 100 points usually win? by Justin L. Abrotsky
"... As the game was barreling toward its dramatic conclusion, the Clippers were challenging not only NBA history, but their beloved broadcaster’s famous law.

The Times crunched the numbers and found that, aside from being catchy and alliterative, Lawler’s Law turned out to be remarkably accurate. Over the last 23 years, among more than 27,000 NBA games, the first team to reach 100 won 94% of the time. ..." Continue reading & watching at 'Los Angeles Times'!


When all we have are the overall records and no information about court advantage, etc. we apply the following formula:

Win%A_B = [ Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) ] / [Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) + ( 1-Win%A ) * Win%B ]

where Win%A_B is the chance that A will beat B, Win%A is A's winning percentage against the league, and Win%B is B's winning percentage against the league.

When we can access to the home court team percentages, we apply:

Win%A_B = [ Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) * Win%H ] /  [ Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) * Win%H + ( 1-Win%A ) * Win%B  * ( 1-Win%H ) ]

where Win%H is the percentage of times the home teams wins.


:D Translation & Links: ebastats - the basketball statistics forum

Visit: The eBa sketball Video Collection (2nd. & 4th. Boards)

form_311

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Basketball Matchup Probabilities Formula & Applicability
Fórmula de Probabilidades de Emparejamiento en Baloncesto


• MatchUp probabilities for Teams
• Probabilidades de MatchUp para Equipos


( para Traducción al Español= Ver a Continuación )

By means which application can I calculate MatchUp probabilities for Teams ?


The nuts and bolts of Baskebtall Prediction Matchup (BPM) In this image from The Athlytics Blog presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Image: The Athlytics Blog


The nuts and bolts of Baskebtall Prediction Matchup (BPM) from The Athlytics Blog
"... Isn’t it fun when you know the result of a game before it actually happens? Of course it is and everyone have their subjective opinions on how the game will play out. In this blog post I will describe – in as much detail as possible – the Basketball Prediction Matchup (BPM) model for obtaining the win probability of an NBA matchup. BPM’s architecture is based on our relevant model for NFL, FPM, with the corresponding features of course being different. ..." Continue reading & watching at 'The Athlytics Blog'!

Por cuál medio puedo yo calcular las Probabilidades de Emparejamiento para Equipos ?

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